The Cava Stock Attention Spike was first logged at Station LB-09 on 15 June 2023, coinciding with Cava Group's initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange. Early readings registered between 1.2 and 1.8 CAU, consistent with the shallow-water churn typical of newly listed consumer-facing equities. The signal exhibited a distinctive tidal signature: brief surges of 0.5–0.8 CAU following quarterly earnings disclosures, decaying within 72 to 96 hours to near-ambient levels. For the first eighteen months of monitoring, the phenomenon remained on the continental shelf, never breaching 3.0 CAU on any sustained basis. Station LB-09 classified it under Discourse Cycles Series with a low-priority watch flag per ATD Standing Order 12.1.
Absent a significant exogenous catalyst — a major acquisition, executive departure, or single-session price movement exceeding fifteen percent — the phenomenon is projected to ebb at a rate of approximately 0.6 to 0.9 CAU per week. This rate is calibrated against historical decay curves for comparable restaurant-sector equity signals in the Discourse Cycles series, which tend toward steeper initial drops followed by a prolonged low-amplitude tail. Under this model, the signal should return to ambient levels below 0.2 CAU by approximately 22 March 2025, plus or minus one week. The probability of a recursive micro-surge — defined as a transient rise of 1.0 CAU or greater above the prevailing trend line — is estimated at 34 percent, most likely triggered by the next quarterly earnings report or an analyst rating change. Such a micro-surge, if it occurs, would extend the return-to-ambient window by ten to fourteen days but is not expected to alter the terminal trajectory.
Monitoring frequency at Station LB-09 should be maintained at current intervals until CAU readings fall below 2.0 on three consecutive sampling cycles, at which point the station may reduce to weekly passive collection per ATD Operational Directive 4.6. If the mainstream incursion count increases to four or more confirmed hits from distinct outlets, Protocol 7.3 requires re-escalation to active monitoring regardless of CAU level. In the absence of either condition, this phenomenon is expected to complete its full tidal cycle without further administrative action. The file will remain open in the Discourse Cycles ledger with a standing review date of 15 April 2025.