The Stolen Girl was first logged by Station UK-7 on 2 January 2025 as a low-amplitude disturbance in the deep water of the Limbic Basin, registering 1.8 CAU on initial sounding. The signal originated from a single geographic cluster — UK search traffic — and presented with the velocity profile typical of a title-driven curiosity event: steep onset gradient, narrow geographic footprint, no lateral propagation to adjacent cultural basins. By 5 January the reading had crossed the continental shelf threshold at 3.0 CAU, triggering automated Phase Reclassification under ATD Protocol 2.1 from deep water to incoming. The classification flag was issued without source-type resolution, which remains pending.
In the absence of mainstream incursion or source-type confirmation, the baseline forecast models an orderly ebb commencing within seven to twelve days of the provisional peak, placing the onset of ebbing phase between 17 and 22 January 2025. Projected ebb rate is 0.6 to 0.9 CAU per week under standard dissipation curves for a single-basin, single-source signal of this magnitude. On this trajectory, the phenomenon would cross the intertidal threshold of 1.0 CAU by approximately 5 February and return to ambient levels below 0.2 CAU by 20 February 2025. Probability of a recursive micro-surge — defined as a secondary rise of at least 1.5 CAU following initial ebb below 2.0 — is estimated at 34 percent, driven almost entirely by the unresolved source-type variable: if the title maps to a news event with developing legal or investigative proceedings, recursive behaviour becomes near-certain and the forecast is void.
Monitoring frequency should be maintained at the current four-hour interval until the phenomenon has registered three consecutive sampling cycles below 2.0 CAU, at which point Station UK-7 may revert to the standard ebbing-phase interval of twelve hours per Protocol 5.2. Full stand-down to passive monitoring at twenty-four-hour intervals is authorised only after the signal has remained below 0.5 CAU for a continuous seventy-two-hour period and no mainstream incursion flag has been raised. Should source-type confirmation arrive indicating a live news case at any point before stand-down, duty officers must immediately re-engage Protocol 2.1 and escalate to Basin Supervisor level, as the forecast model would require complete recalibration under the ATD News-Event Supplement, Annex D.